A banner displaying an image depicting Alberto Nunez Feijo, leader of the PP party. Voters in Spain will head to the polls on July 23 to vote and elect Spain’s next government.
Pablo Blasquez Dominguez | Getty Images News | Getty Images
Voters in Spain head to polling stations on Sunday in an election that could see the far-right take power for the first time since the dictatorship of Francisco Franco.
Opinion polls released ahead of the vote predicted a victory for the conservatives, with the PP (People’s Party) expected to secure around 34% support, which would be insufficient to form a majority government.
Some political analysts expect the PP to be the third-largest political force in this election, aligned with the far-right party Vox, which could win more than 10% of the vote.
“The most likely outcome is a coalition government with the PP firmly in control, with most of the major ministries under control, with Box as a junior partner,” Federico Santi, senior analyst at Eurasia Group, said in a note on Wednesday.
He added that this scenario would be “moderately positive for the market, with Spanish equity indices slightly outperforming compared to their European counterparts, as reflected in Spanish asset prices over the past few weeks, while German sovereign credit spreads remained broadly stable.”
not the first time
The Conservative Party PP and the far-right party Box have so far signed political agreements governing three municipalities in Spain, and others in smaller cities.
However, their relationship seems more like forced cohabitation than a natural partnership.
A billboard for the far-right party VOX is seen vandalized with black paint during the election.
Pablo Blasquez Dominguez | Getty Images News | Getty Images
In a televised debate prior to the election, PP leader Alberto Feijoo suggested that he would rule with Vox if the vote was needed. Conservative lawmakers have expressed concerns about Vox’s anti-LGBT rights and anti-immigration policies.
Box has also been criticized by mainstream politicians for being against abortion rights and denying climate change, among others.
During a debate with incumbent socialist leader Pedro Sánchez, Feijó said his rival could not preach to other politicians about the deal. Sanchez has struck a deal with the separatist party to secure a de facto majority in Congress.
it’s a culture war
University of Seville economist Tacho Rufino told CNBC’s Charlotte Reed on Thursday that the election is less about economics and more about cultural issues such as nationalism, LGBT rights and climate change.
Sanchez has been criticized, for example, for pardoning politicians who supported regional independence. During his tenure, there was also the problem of the “only yes means yes” sexual consent law, which shortened the prison terms of many rapists convicted through loopholes.
Sunday’s vote could also be affected by climate change, as it is the first election to be held in the summer. Spain is one of the southern European countries that has been hit by severe heatwaves in recent days.
