Rice accounts for 4.4% of the consumer price index basket, but staple al-hal or tour also saw a decline, weighing 0.8% of retail inflation. Their combined share of food inflation is 13.2%.
“If the monsoon doesn’t pick up in a particular state, rice will be a concern,” said Paras Jasrai, senior analyst at Indra. no,’ he said. .
The late arrival of the monsoon in the province, which accounts for 61% of the rice planted area, reduced the planted area by more than a third by 25 June.
The planted area of legumes increased, but Tule seeding decreased and Mungu seeding increased.
“The rain deficit in June 2019 was even higher at 35%,” Jasrai said.
A memo from SBI Research noted that 10 of the 15 major grain-producing states by June 26 had insufficient rainfall.
The Meteorological Department of India predicted a normal monsoon, despite possible intensification of El Niño.
Economists at SBI Research also shared this view, saying that the Indian Ocean Dipole, another indicator that affects monsoons, is likely to turn positive in the coming months, adding, “This will have a negative impact on India’s monsoons.” are excluded,” he said. But they also said that spatial distribution is more important.
“Given the significant impact of the southwest monsoon, assuming the spatial pattern and distribution of precipitation to be of greatest importance, the current deficit situation (albeit rapidly improving) The delay has put inflation and growth forecasts in jeopardy,” said the SBI Research note. .
Economists said rice sowing could still recover, but there was also concern that many farmers would replace rice with coarse grains.